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<rss version="2.0"><channel><title>The Geopolitical Review</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/</link><description>Taiwan-centered intelligence on geopolitics, technology, and industry.</description><language>en</language><item><title>Taiwan's Two Faces</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/shuangmian-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/shuangmian-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The whole world depends on Taiwan's chips — and is quietly preparing for the day it might lose them. The same island is both the heart of the supply chain and a geopolitical powder keg. How can Taiwan's companies turn "irreplaceable" into an advantage that lasts?</description></item><item><title>September 11: The Loophole Clock Starts Ticking — How the EU CRA's 24/72-Hour Rule Rewrites Taiwan's Hardware Exports</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/cra-24h-clock-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/cra-24h-clock-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The reporting obligations of the EU's Cyber Resilience Act take effect early, on September 11, 2026. They do not require every vulnerability to be disclosed within a day — they require the legal manufacturer of a product to issue a 24-hour early warning, a 72-hour notification, and a follow-up final report once it becomes aware of an actively exploited vulnerability or a severe security incident. The real impact on Taiwan is that brand owners will push that statutory clock backward onto their ODMs, component suppliers, and software supply chains.</description></item><item><title>The AI Act Starts Enforcing: For Taiwanese Models, SaaS and Content Platforms Entering the EU, Who Is Provider, Who Is Deployer?</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/eu-ai-act-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/eu-ai-act-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The EU AI Act has entered a new phase of enforcement and transparency obligations. The real first question for Taiwanese companies is not where the underlying model comes from, but which legal role they occupy in each product, brand and use case.</description></item><item><title>Products Need a Résumé Too: The EU's DPP Registry Is Live — Who Controls Taiwanese Suppliers' Data?</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/eu-digital-product-passport-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/eu-digital-product-passport-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The EU's DPP Registry has gone live, but not every product becomes mandatory on the same day, and it does not mean a complete data set gets uploaded to a central EU database. What Taiwanese suppliers really need to decide now is who controls identifiers, hosting, access, updates and transfer.</description></item><item><title>Once the Quota Runs Out, It's Fifty Percent: How the EU's New Steel Tariff Reshuffles Nine Categories of Taiwanese Exports</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/eu-steel-quota-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/eu-steel-quota-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The EU's new steel regime does not slap 50% on every tonne of Taiwanese steel from the first shipment. Instead it places 26 product categories inside tariff-rate quotas, and only once the relevant quota is exhausted does a 50% out-of-quota surcharge apply. Taiwan holds country-specific allocations in nine categories, but what actually decides whether a given order keeps its margin is the CN classification, origin, quarter, quota order number, and the date the EU accepts the import declaration.</description></item><item><title>The December 4 Vote: If the IMO's Net-Zero Framework Passes, Which Bill Does Taiwan's Shipping Industry and Kaohsiung Port Pay First?</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/imo-net-zero-vote-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/imo-net-zero-vote-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The IMO did not adopt the Net-Zero Framework in 2025, and December 4, 2026 is only the scheduled date for resuming the extraordinary session — contingent on confirmation by MEPC 85. Taiwan has no vote at the IMO, yet it will still feel the outcome through flag-state and port-state enforcement, fuel procurement, freight rates, and shipper contracts. What Taiwan should pay first is not an as-yet-undetermined carbon price, but three preparation costs: data, a fuel evidence chain, and contract transparency.</description></item><item><title>Japan Takes Economic Security Overseas: Can OESA Bring Taiwan's Supply Chains Into State-Level Financing?</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/japan-oesa-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/japan-oesa-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>Japan has created OESA, extending policy finance to overseas projects that matter for economic security but are hard for existing tools to carry. Taiwan has an opening, but the law taking effect is not the same as Taiwan already being on the list — the real threshold lies in Japan's own interests, project design, and implementing rules that have yet to be published.</description></item><item><title>Viral Data Goes In — Do Vaccines Come Out? Taiwan's Gap in the PABS Negotiations</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/pabs-taiwan-gap</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/pabs-taiwan-gap</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The WHO Pandemic Agreement was adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2025, but its core annex on pathogen access and benefit-sharing is still under negotiation; the seventh round did not conclude, and the eighth round is set for September. Taiwan's real risk is not whether it can upload a sequence — it is that there is no single, publicly verifiable, end-to-end pathway linking data contribution, notification of use, manufacturer contracts, and actual access to vaccines and diagnostics.</description></item><item><title>100 Percent Is Not All Drugs: Taiwan's Real Exposure and Window Under the U.S. Pharmaceutical Section 232 Tariff</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/pharma-232-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/pharma-232-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The U.S. pharmaceutical Section 232 measure establishes a current, conditional structure of 100%, 20%, 15%, and 0% treatments for certain imported branded pharmaceuticals and related ingredients; the Section 232 additional duty rate on UK-origin covered goods changed from +10% to +0%, effective 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on July 31, 2026. Taiwan's exports to the U.S. are dominated by generics, keeping overall short-term exposure below the headline number — but the reprieve, the one-year reassessment, company-level agreements, and import classification mean the real risk sits with individual products and customers.</description></item><item><title>The Philippines' Double Signal: If the Taiwan Strait Erupts, Is EDCA Strategic Depth or a Political No-Go Zone?</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/philippines-edca-double-signal</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/philippines-edca-double-signal</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>Marcos says, on one hand, that the Philippines will not become a springboard for a US attack on China — and, on the other, admits it cannot stay out of a Taiwan Strait crisis. EDCA's real significance is that capability has already been built, while specific activities remain subject to Philippine approval and bilateral mechanisms.</description></item><item><title>Not a September Vote: How the WTO's "Fish Week" Puts Taiwan's Distant-Water Fishing Fleet on the Transparency Exam Table</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/wto-fish-week-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/wto-fish-week-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The WTO's first Fish Week is scheduled for September 21–25, but the chair has already made clear this is not a decision-making moment. What has actually already taken effect is the first-tranche prohibitions and transparency obligations; what has not yet been agreed is the rules on overcapacity and overfishing subsidies. What Taiwan needs to prepare is not a hastily assembled list of subsidies to cut, but an evidence chain that can trace every piece of support back to vessels, catch, and stock status.</description></item><item><title>The Catastrophe Reinsurance Black Hole: What No One in Taiwan Will Insure, Between the Earthquake Belt and Geopolitical Risk</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/catastrophe-reinsurance-gap</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/catastrophe-reinsurance-gap</guid><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>Taiwan sits on both the Pacific Ring of Fire and the geopolitical fault line of the Taiwan Strait. As global reinsurers reprice both "earthquake" and "war," a black hole that no one wants to underwrite is widening beneath corporate balance sheets — this is not just a premium problem, but a systemic resilience gap for Taiwan.</description></item><item><title>CBAM Has Arrived: How the EU's Carbon Border Tax Becomes a Hidden New Tariff on Taiwan's Steel, Aluminum, Cement and Fastener Exports</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/cbam-carbon-tariff</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/cbam-carbon-tariff</guid><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The EU's CBAM has entered its definitive period. For Taiwanese exporters, the key is not to reduce it to a flat tariff rate, but to work with EU importers to complete data on embedded emissions, carbon price already paid at origin, and declaration paperwork — only then can the real cost be judged.</description></item><item><title>The Twelve Remaining Seats: Diplomatic Dominoes and the Vatican's One-of-a-Kind Line of Defense</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/diplomatic-dominoes-vatican</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/diplomatic-dominoes-vatican</guid><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The Ministry of Foreign Affairs' latest statistics show Taiwan has twelve diplomatic allies, with the Holy See its only partner in Europe. The Holy See maintains a provisional agreement with China on the appointment of bishops, but that agreement has not changed Taiwan-Vatican diplomatic relations; the two relationships must be understood as strictly separate.</description></item><item><title>The Non-Red Drone Problem: Taiwan Wants to Build Its Own Drone Fleet, But the Parts Are Still in China's Hands</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/drone-supply-decoupling</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/drone-supply-decoupling</guid><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The government has made drones a priority of both defense and industrial policy, and requires military and public-sector procurement to run on a non-red supply chain. But this is not a transition a label can complete on its own: Taiwan has to turn component traceability, substitution options and mass-production capacity into verifiable capabilities, one by one.</description></item><item><title>Kinmen and Matsu's Quasi-Integration: How Water Supply, Transport, and Cross-Strait Policy Are Amplifying the Outlying Islands' Resilience Test</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/outlying-islands-economy</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/outlying-islands-economy</guid><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>Kinmen's water transfer from Fujian, the rebound in Mini Three Links traffic, and Fujian's integration policy are forcing outlying-island governance to face both livelihood convenience and single-source risk at once. The verifiable question is not whether the islands have 'already been taken over,' but how to make backup supply, transport, and commercial options more resilient.</description></item><item><title>The World Grows 3%, Taiwan Grows 9.64%: In the Tug-of-War Between AI and War, How Long Can This High Growth Last?</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/ai-war-two-speed-global-economy</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/ai-war-two-speed-global-economy</guid><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The IMF forecasts 3.0% global growth for 2026; Taiwan's DGBAS forecasts 9.64%. The gap is not Taiwan decoupling from the world — it is Taiwan standing exactly where AI investment's updraft is strongest. The same position that pushes growth up can also amplify the shock when capital spending, energy prices, or valuations turn.</description></item><item><title>Global Public Debt Heads Toward 100% of GDP: Treasuries Are Still a Safe Haven, but Taiwan Can No Longer Hold Blindly</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/global-debt-repricing-taiwan</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/global-debt-repricing-taiwan</guid><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>The IMF projects global public debt will reach 100% of GDP by 2029, while the BIS warns that high public debt and non-bank leverage are amplifying pressure in sovereign-debt markets. Taiwan's own fiscal position is comparatively sound, but its banks, life insurers, businesses and households are connected to global interest rates through overseas bonds, exchange rates and financing costs. The real risk is not that Treasuries have suddenly become unsafe, but the mistake of treating credit safety as though price, liquidity and currency risk no longer need managing.</description></item><item><title>Safety Isn't Moving Everything Back to Taiwan: Real Resilience Is How Fast You Recover After Something Breaks</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/resilience-is-recovery-not-reshoring</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/resilience-is-recovery-not-reshoring</guid><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>Stockpiling, localization and backup systems all serve a purpose, but none of them is a synonym for resilience. What Taiwan actually needs to ask isn't how much it holds in reserve, but how much essential function it can sustain during a disruption, who can switch to an alternative, and how quickly service comes back.</description></item><item><title>9.64% Isn't Everyone's Report Card: Alongside GDP, Taiwan Is Still Missing a Distribution Table</title><link>https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/second-scoreboard-beyond-gdp</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.tgr.tw/en/p/second-scoreboard-beyond-gdp</guid><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate><description>9.64% is genuinely good news, but it is not everyone's income gain. What Taiwan needs isn't another anti-GDP slogan — it's a second scoreboard that puts output, wages, the cost of living and industrial spillover on the same page.</description></item></channel></rss>